When Malaysia General Election GE13 To Be Held?

The Malaysia General Election (GE 13) analysis and prediction below is by MIDF research:

Table below shows the election dates of all of the past general elections (GE) since 1959. At first glance it reveals that no particular favored month for a GE to be held but does suggest that a weekend is preferred, possibly to minimize the disruption to the working population.

Election date and day from past elections and parliament duration:

•     Only two parliament editions ran full 5-year mandate.On average, the Malaysian parliament ran for 52.96 months or 4 years, 4 months and 29 days. Applying the average duration, theoretically the 13th GE should be held on Monday, 6 August 2012. Revised to 4 or 5 August 2012 to exclude working days. However, we believe the date is unlikely given past three elections was held during school holidays.
In addition, Budget 2013 is likely to be tabled in September and it falls during Ramadhan month.
•     Other limiting factors. Besides school holidays and Ramadhan, there are several other limiting factors which need to be considered, namely date of school examinations and Haj season. Following the aforementioned logic, the next possible date will be in November and December 2012. We understand that the Sijil Pernilaian Malaysia (SPM) starts on 5 November 2012 to 6 December 2012. Hence, it is possible that the elections could be held in second or third week of December 2012.

The Malaysia General Election (GE 13) analysis and prediction below is by MIDF research:

Table below shows the election dates of all of the past general elections (GE) since 1959. At first glance it reveals that no particular favored month for a GE to be held but does suggest that a weekend is preferred, possibly to minimize the disruption to the working population.

Election date and day from past elections and parliament duration:

•     Only two parliament editions ran full 5-year mandate.On average, the Malaysian parliament ran for 52.96 months or 4 years, 4 months and 29 days. Applying the average duration, theoretically the 13th GE should be held on Monday, 6 August 2012. Revised to 4 or 5 August 2012 to exclude working days. However, we believe the date is unlikely given past three elections was held during school holidays.
In addition, Budget 2013 is likely to be tabled in September and it falls during Ramadhan month.
•     Other limiting factors. Besides school holidays and Ramadhan, there are several other limiting factors which need to be considered, namely date of school examinations and Haj season. Following the aforementioned logic, the next possible date will be in November and December 2012. We understand that the Sijil Pernilaian Malaysia (SPM) starts on 5 November 2012 to 6 December 2012. Hence, it is possible that the elections could be held in second or third week of December 2012.

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