Guess Who Will Get Klang Valley LRT Ext RM7 Bil Contracts? Updated

Based on these consensus opinions, look like Gamuda, IJM, and UEM Group are the strongest contenders. Potential winners picked by Maybank Investment Bank, HwangDBS Vickers, Arab Malaysia Research and OSK Research.

Syarikat Prasarana Negara Bhd said 17  applicants have qualified to bid for contracts of about RM7bn to extend light rail transit (LRT) lines in the Klang Valley. Another 15 candidates were shortlisted for the subcontracting of fabrication and delivery of segmental box girder works. (Business Times)

Contractors pre-qualified for  LRT extension – MAIN CONTRACTORS
1. Sunway Construction
2. Fajarbaru Builder-Signatium Construction
3. WCT-Sinohydro Corp
4. IJM Construction
5. Ranhill-CCCC
6. Muhibbah Engineering
7. Gamuda
8. UEM Builders-Intria Bina
9. MMC-Zelan
10. MRCB Engineering 
11. Trans Resources Corp
12. BPHB-Tim Sekata
13. Zabima-Leighton
14. Mudajaya Corp
15. MTDC-Persys
16. Loh & Loh Construction
17. Ahmad Zaki

Contractors pre-qualified for LRT extension – SUB-CONTRACTORS for
Segmental Box Girders
1. Sunway Construction
2. Fajarbaru Builder-Signatium Construction
3. WCT-Sinohydro Corp
4. IJM Construction
5. Ranhill-CCCC
6. Muhibbah Engineering
7. UEM Builders-Intria Bina
8. MMC-Zelan 
9. MRCB Engineering
10. BPHB-Tim Sekata
11. Zabima-Leighton 
12. MTDC-Persys
13. Ahmad Zaki
14. Bina Puri-Acre Works-SNC Lavalin 

Potential winners
In terms of experience, IJM, UEM and Mudajaya can ride on their resume in the construction of the existing Klang Valley LRT lines. In terms of technical capability, we think that Gamuda ranks well, and so do WCT, MTD and Ranhill. As for total package offering, including financial capacity, our bets are on IJM, Gamuda, WCT and UEM for the main contractor role.  ( Maybank Investment Bank)

Based on balance sheet strength and past experience alone, we think Gamuda and IJM are the strongest contenders. In any case, IJM, MRCB, WCT and Sunway have also been shortlisted for the subcontractor role which hedges their bets somewhat. Another non-listed GLC contractor which we think is also a front runner is UEM Builders. (HWDBS Vickers)

Based on operating track record, the UEM Group – along with IJM and Gamuda are leading contenders. Nevertheless, we do not discount possibility of local consortiums being formed to pave the way for other contractors to participate at sub-contractor level, including WCT Bhd (WCT).  (Arab Malaysian Research)

We reckon that Gamuda (NEUTRAL, TP: RM2.75) has the necessary expertise to undertake the job given its experience with the Kaohsiung MRT in Taiwan. IJM (BUY, TP: RM5.45) and Road Builders (acquired by IJM in 2007) were among the main subcontractors for the existing line. On the other hand, MRCB (TRADING BUY, TP: RM1.75) was involved in the existing LRT portion at KL Sentral. Mudajaya (BUY, TP: RM6.48) is also a likely beneficiary as it previously constructed some of the stations for the current line and was also involved in the KLIA track transit. Lastly, unlisted UEM Builders was the main contractor for the current line. As pricing would also be the key determinant, we think competitive contractors like WCT (BUY, TP: RM3.08) stand a strong winning chance.  (OSK Research)

Based on these consensus opinions, look like Gamuda, IJM and UEM Group/Builders are the strongest candidates.

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Guess Who Will get Hulu Langat Selangor RM2 bil Water Treatment Plant.

 Pengurusan Aset Air Bhd (PAAB) has narrowed down the list of companies that can bid to build a RM2bil water treatment plant in Hulu Langat from 30 to 12.  This involves 1,130 mld in capacity for the first phase, with a total 1,890 mld in capacity when the second phase is commissioned.

PAAB probably will call for a tender in May or June 2010.

12 Contractors short-listed for Langat 2, Phase 1:
1. Gamuda-Biwater International
2. MMC-Salcon 
3. Loh & Loh-UEM Builders 
4. WCT-Sinohydro Corp 
5. LGB Engineering-George Kent-Taliworks
6. LBH Group
7. Puncak Niaga (M) Sdn Bhd
8. IJM Construction
9. Kumpulan Perangsang Selangor
10. Hati Muda Sdn Bhd
11. Mewah Kota Sdn Bhd
12. Asia Baru Construction Sdn Bhd

According to Maybank Investment Bank, the proven names in water infrastructure are Gamuda, IJM, WCT and  Loh & Loh. Also saying,  for financial capabilities, Gamuda, IJM and WCT have strong balance sheets to support the project financing (working capital).

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Malaysia Major Infrastructure Projects Pending Award 2010-2015

Here is a list of Major Infrastructure Projects Pending Award 2010 to 2015. Included the projects estimated value  and potential construction companies  that will be awarded.  Let's speculate which companies will grab those projects. It may worth it.

Projects	Estd. value (RM’m)	Comments
Potential awards in 2010
Pahang-Selangor water transfer (upstream: Kelau Dam, pumping station, pipes)	1,200	The pumping station package is close to being awarded to a Japanese-led consortium. This would be followed by the dam work package.  Potential beneficiaries are Loh & Loh and George Kent.
Sepang low cost carrier terminal  (LCCT)	2,000	So far, two workpackages relating to earthworks totaling RM654m have been awarded to WCT (RM363m) and a Gadang JV (RM291m). The remaining packages are the: (i) main terminal and satellite building works worth RM1b (tender have closed), and (ii) runway, worth RM300m-RM400m. The entire LCCT project is scheduled for completion by 3Q2011.   Potential beneficiaries for the remaining work packages are UEM, Bina Puri, IJM, WCT and Sunway.
Klang Valley LRT extension (Kelana Jaya-Putra Heights-Sri Petaling, 17km)		Proposed line alignment was opened for public comments until 15 Dec 09.  Edge Weekly (19 Apr 10) reported that the main contractors pre-qualified (pre-Q) for the first package (Kelana Jaya line) would be announced soon. An award is expected in the next two months, and works would start in Nov 10.  IJM, Gamuda, WCT, Sunway, Loh & Loh, UEM Builders, MRCB, Scomi and Putrajaya Perdana are the potential beneficiaries.
Papar-Penampang (Sabah) dam and water treatment plant	2,800	Approved by the Sabah state government in Apr 09, the project is believed to be a private finance initiative (PFI) project.   Likely beneficiary is WCT.
Potential awards within 10MP (2011-15)
Pahang-Selangor water transfer (downstream: Langat  2 treatment plant)	5,000	Although Kumpulan Darul Ehsan was awarded the contract in Feb ’08 by the federal government, recent indications are that the Chinese contractors may eventually feature instead.  Gamuda may benefit, riding on its experience in the SSP3 project.
Double tracking rail – Southern (Gemas-Johor Baru)	8,000	Chinese contractors have been offered a role in project construction during PM Najib’s diplomatic visit to China on 2-5 Jun, 09. This was reaffirmed during Chinese Premier’s 11 Nov 09 visit to Malaysia.  IJM, Loh & Loh, and Fajarbaru may benefit, extending their existing works at the Seremban-Gemas stretch.
West Coast Expressway	3,000	The concession was awarded to an IJM consortium in 2007. The amendment terms are being finalised.
New Klang Valley LRT line (Kota Damansara-Cheras) (40km)	9,000	All major contractors, i.e. IJM Corp, Gamuda, WCT, Sunway, Mudajaya, UEM Builders, MRCB and Scomi could be eyeing for a piece of the works.
Bakun Undersea Cable	6,000	Project owner is Sarawak Hidro, a unit of the MoF. An open international tender was expected in Mar/Apr 10. A decision on whether the project would take off is still pending.
Mengkuang Dam extension, Penang	1,200	This was an original 9MP project, shelved after the Mar 08 General Election, but reinstated in Jul 09. The Malaysian government has given an agreement in principal for the Chinese contractors to take on the works, during the Chinese Premier’s 11 Nov 09 visit to Malaysia.
Balleh Hydroelectric Project (1,400MW)	4,000	In the plan – to support heavy industries under SCORE.
Baram Hydroelectric Project (1,000MW)	2,800	In the plan – to support heavy industries under SCORE.
Wastewater Management System (Phases 2-4), Kuching	1,500	HSL consortium may benefit due to its involvement in Phase 1 worth RM452m.
Flood Mitigation Works (subsequent phases), Kuching	1,150	Naim Holdings JV holds the Letter of Intent (dated Feb 09) for the entire works in Kuching worth RM1.3b.
TOTAL	54,650

Sources:Maybank-IB

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Malaysia New Major Construction Projects Awarded in 2010 YTD

Malaysia New Major New Construction Projects Awarded in 2010- Year To date. Includes estimated projects value, contractors awarded and awarded by whom.

	Est.project value (RM million)	Contractor:	Awarded by:
Government funded:
Package B, Part I and II of the 275KV Overhead Transmission Line Projects for Bakun-Similajau Transmission System	209.1	Sinohydro-Naim JV	Sarawak Energy
Construction of proposed Lubok Antu/Lemanak/Engkari Road (Package B), Sri Aman Division (Phase III – From Ng. Kesit to Ng. Gugu)	35.8	Hock Seng Lee	Jabatan Kerja Raya, Sarawak
Paya Peda Dam in Besut, Terengganu	333.0	Jaks - Pembinaan Sujaman JV	Min of Agriculture and Agro- Based Industry
Road packages to Murum Dam (Packages 1A, 2B), Sarawak	246.7	IJM Corp	Jabatan Kerja Raya, Sarawak
Subtotal	824.6
Private, sub-contracted & privatisation projects:
EW02A at New LCCT, Sepang	291.2	Gadang-Bukit Jerneh Quarry JV	Malaysia Airport
Piling and Building Works in Jalan SS6/6, Kelana Jaya, Selangor	30.7	PJI Holdings	Blackstone Seven
Boulevard Plaza Development, Lot 3C7, Putrajaya	241.3	Mudajaya-Bina Rezeki JV	Boulevard Plaza
Package BA/WP3 for Phase 1,  Prawn breeding aquaculture farm,  Terengganu	69.9	Fajarbaru Builder Group	Blue Archipelago
100 2-storey cluster homes and TNB substation, Shah Alam, Bukit Raja	21.5	Sunway Holdings	Sunway City
RTG G-block at Container Terminal One (CT1), Northport, Port Klang	46.0	TRC Synergy	Northport (Malaysia)
Besraya Eastern Extension, KL (concession)	600.0	IJM Corp	Govt of Msia
Main civil works (CW2) for the Hulu Terengganu Hydroelectric Project	828.3	Sinohydro-Loh & Loh JV	Tenaga Nasional
New sewerage treatment plant (Package 1), Kelantan	11.8	Salcon	Majaari Services
Phase 2 of Impiana KLCC Development, KL	88.0	Sunway Holdings	Heritage Lane
Waterfront shop office & external works on Plot 8C1, Precinct 8, Putrajaya	60.0	Ahmad Zaki Resources	Putrajaya Holdings
Subtotal	2,288.6

source: Maybank IB

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PETRA PERDANA - Will she rebound on current Fibonacci retracement?

PETRA Stock code 7108
The issues and tussle within Petra already settled and it's price climbed back stated early April. Then it started to retrace and as at latest intraday today, it at  61% Fibonacci retracement.  It may worth to watch PETRA now. As at morning session close, the price action is nice (a sign it already rebounded) but the volume is on doubtful side for further rebound continuation . Wait for afternoon session or tomorrow for confirmation.

Read previous coverage on: PETRA

The last candlestick on PETRA chart below is  as at today's morning session close:
(click to enlarge): 
More data at http://biz.thestar.com.my/petra

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UEMLAND BUY SIGNAL NOW?

UEMLAND STOCK CODE 5148

Note that there price adjustment for UEMLAND few days back, so after x-date:
The major support now is at 1.15 .The pivot zone to for valid rebound buy signal is now 1.40-1.35 zone

Both are the same level as in my previous outlook. RM1.40-RM1.35 zone is also a Fibonacci 38% retracement zone.
All my outlook on UEMLAND maintain as in previous blogpost. More details in that post, please read it here: UEMLAND WAKING UP

Latest, it already rebound at 1.41 low, last close price RM1.50 (last Friday).
I will say the rebound is a valid buy signal, which I expect the UEMLAND shall heading over  RM1.65. (minimum target - that based on Elliot wave counting)

The RM0.15 reward probably not so attractive especially if you haven't buy yet. Not sure what what price you will get in the next few days. But if UEMLAND can break RM1.65 (minimum target) resistant, I think it can go far. That made it attractive.

The support zone (RM1.40-RM1.35)  is the sign of weakness level to watch out.

below: UEMLAND chart (click to enlarge):

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MAYBANK STOCK REVISITED

Maybank stock code 1155
Price RM7.55
12 Months high 7.650  (08-Mar-10)
12 Months low 3.820  (08-Apr-09)

Maybank covered in this blog before when its' still within a range bound  of RM6.60 - RM7.05. Read it: Maybank- stock code 1155 
Mentioned on that post:
"It's buy on rebound near support (6.60) if that what you are looking for, with a couple of weeks  holding period allowance."

Yes, it fell to RM6.60 and rebounded and staged RM7.05 level breakout. After rebounded, it  took several weeks to go as high as RM7.65.

Maybank is a index-linked heavyweight counter, looking at the chart it can be categorized as a momentum stock not different from FBM KLCI trend. Breakout signal and 'trend is your friend' adage are good ones to apply with this stock.

Right now it need a breakout form recent high as a signal new fresh buying. Which I think that come soon especially with:
1. Its latest development,
2.Recent research house revised target price. For example Hwang DBS Vickers revised Maybank target price to RM9.00.  (more research houses are expected to revised its target) 
3. Last but not least, CIMB has moved very far which made Maybank as the next likely KLCI heavyweight stock candidate to be pushed.
4.Maybank is a laggard with low foreign shareholding (11%) vs. CIMB (40%) and Public Bank (26%).  (data by HDBS Vickers)

Below: Maybank Daily chart (click to enlarge)

MAYBANK CONSENSUS RECOMENDATIONS ANALYSIS  - source:  REUTERS 

Check other data : thestarbiz maybank

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BRDB TECHNICAL UPDATES - TARGET ACHIEVED

BANDAR RAYA DEVELOPMENTS BHD stock code 1473

So far so good but now in sideway  mode.

As mentioned in previous post:
"Short-to medium term target: 1.70 to over 2.00." 
Read it here:  klse-stocks/brdb
Target achieved.

Previously mentioned:
"Multiple (different wave scale reading) : Both Elliot immediate and minor wave 'agree'. Think so Elliot minor wave 2 (white numbering) in the making, could end anytime. Bullish wave 3 should come very soon. Elliot immediate bullish wave 3 (blue numbering) could already started.   It need the break out from 1.65 pt, to confirm it is the bullish immediate wave 3 and will go far."

And now:
Elliot immediate wave 2 (blue) has ended (with the breakout of both RM1.65 and RM1.92 price level. Now also in bullish wave 3 which also can end anytime since it has fulfilled the wave minimum requirements.

Now in a sideway mode. Next upside potential minimum is about to RM2.30 (Fibonacci target).  Look for volume increase for upside signal. RM1.93 is the support zone to watch for, as the weakness signal.

Below: BRDB daily chart (click to enlarge)

Other info at http://biz.thestar.com.my/brdb

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