Petra Perdana (stock code 7108)

Update 8th Jan 2010 :  Petra Perdana clarifies

Alert update 7th January 2010: Need to 'ignore' this counter for a while - let the dust settled.. Reason: Flash Petra Perdana gets notice for EGM to remove 4 directors. Read the news

I have small position on Petra - getting out today. It's 'funny' this counter gaining a lot today (intraday - morning session). A tussle within a company normally not exactly a bullish news. It need time to settle down. It will still gaining for a while anyway for the reason that to remove the directors the voters need to get more shares for voting power. I am not holding to it.

  

I have been looking into some of oil and gas stocks such as KNM, Waseong, Petrona Gas, Kencana, Sapcres and Kencana.   Chartwise, beside Kencana and Sapcres ,  I think Petra Perdana is the most interesting one.

I believe a new immediate bullish  Elliot Wave sequence  already emerged. See Petra weekly chart below: (click to enlarge)
  
Since the counter already went and just rebounded in two days, I prefer the trend to be tested first. Let the current up-trend  end and wait for correction. It shoudn't go down below 1.20 (the final support is 1.12). If not, it fail. Need to wait correction for final buy set-up.  It can be very soon because the target/resistance for now is just 1.65 .

Below : Petra Perdana Daily chart (click to enlarge)

Since there some news and events this month on Petra, I think the test is a MUST. If passed then the reward over risk is very great

Other data on: Petra Perdana 
Recent news on: Petra Perdana

update: 5th Feb 2010
Petra Perdana’s management team has managed to remove Tengku Ibrahim Petra and his wife Datin Nariza Hajjar Hashim and two other independent directors from the board. Read : http://thestar.com.my/news/

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Gamuda Latest Technical Outlook

This is an update on Gamuda to my previous blog post at klse-stocks/gamuda (suggest to read that first for the continuity plus there a few notes there).

Since that day,  Gamuda still on the downtrend down,  last close at 2.61.

(click on the chart for full view)

This a quote from my previous post:

First, the 3 black crow (almost) candlestick formed is a bearish pattern, that made the price will be more on bearish mode and any rebound shall be weak. Also, technically, the minor support (RM 3.05) already breached, that made the downtrend probably will go to the next support, that around RM 2.50.

Now, it is within that RM2.50 support  zone (Fibonacci 38% retracement from high of  RM3.44) and should be tested in coming days. If that support broken, more massive downtrend in order. That to next support  zone at RM2.10.

Anyway, I think there will be some support  at the current zone although not that strong. The most bearish seller already out.

In short, I expect  Gamuda will go into sideway mode in the coming days or even weeks.

For longer term outlook (based on my Elliot wave reading), Gamuda is on wave 2 waiting to end, bullish wave 3  coming after wave 2 ended. The target is beyond high of RM3.44. That still early to say because we haven't yet see the end of current wave (immediate wave 2).

Since it is now in the (technical ) decisive zone, should be interesting to watch. 

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Stock code: 5398
Check price : Gamuda Bhd

Recent news on Gamuda:
"Gamuda Bhd (GAM MK, Buy, TP: RM3.18 -ECM Libra) is not ruling out the possibility of cost increases caused by delays related to land acquisition for the electrified double-tracking project (EDTP), although the construction major is not planning any cost revision at the moment. The EDTP is valued at RM12.5bn and was awarded to MMC Gamuda Joint Venture Sdn Bhd, a joint venture between Gamuda and MMC Corp Bhd, by  the government  in December 2007.  ‘With  the extension of  time,  the new completion date has been pushed to 2014."     29th Dec 09

Gamuda shares hit by uncertain outlook
Gamuda proposes way to value water assets

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Maybank 1155

Maybank stock code 1155
Last price :RM6.77    52-wk High  RM7.08            52-wk Low   RM3.50

A friend of mine who is still holding Maybank shares under ESOS keep on asking what I think of Maybank shares.  I ask him back what he think of  KLCI? I keep telling him that Maybank is a FBM KLCI heavyweight, it moves just like KLCI movement. Maybank already moved up a lot since Feb 08 and now seem sluggish (could be due to holiday season) just like the composite index. Currently, Maybank, in-synced  with KLCI, just move within a small range-bound. Since the main active trader is EPF (so are with most other index-linked counters), I will say it much depend  a lot what EPF going to do with Maybank. EPF still  buy and sell 'rinse and repeat' activities is there. As a blue chips, it is well supported and no major correction (yet) seen coming.

Maybank itself is not currently a star among the banking stocks compared to CIMB or Public bank. Also, we have like RHB and EONcap's MA events that are stealing the spotlights. The purchases of oversea banks 'profitability' can only be seen in the long run. According to ECMlibra, Maybank will finally allay sceptics’ concerns when it continues reporting strong quarterly profits going forward.

Above: Maybank daily chart (click for full view)

Technically, it within a range bound  of RM6.60 - RM7.05 .More of sideway pattern within this range expected. Technical indicator MACD, stochastic, RSI also suggest the same. No sign of going to breakout from this range bound either way yet especially it's into a narrower range within.  For a longer term outlook, a breakout or breakdown signal is needed first to decide.

Nevertheless, Maybank is still potential for short-term trades. With that range-bound, there still a potential gain of 20 to 40cts. It's buy on rebound near support (6.60) if that what you are looking for with a couple of weeks  holding period allowance.

For me I think its better to buy on breakout of 7.05 rather on dip. That should have much better potential. Other way is to wait for a meaningful correction.

Below is consensus recommmendations summary from bloomberg:

Consensus Recommendations
Consensus Recommendation       Company Fiscal Year End Month    Last Updated
Hold                                           June                                          22 Dec 2009   

Analyst Recommendations and Revisions

1-5 Linear Scale       Current    1 Month Ago    2 Month Ago    3 Month Ago
(1) BUY                                2                    2                         1                        1      
(2) OUTPERFORM           2                   2                          1                        1      
(3) HOLD                            10                 10                       8                        8      
(4) UNDERPERFORM     6                   6                         8                        8      
(5) SELL                              2                    2                         2                       2      
No Opinion                        0                   0                         0                      0
Mean Rating                3.18                3.18                   3.45               3.45

check mayban price : thestar

below: Mayban weekly chart (click to enlarge)

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Worst over for SAAG? update

If my wave reading is correct, the worst that can happen to SAAG is to go to previous low RM0.14. I believe so correction wave 2 (labeled blue on the chart) almost over, near to the previous low. That is  a very good correction.  Bullish wave 3 could start anytime.  Target over RM 0.40 for mid to long term holding, say several months. See the above SAAG weekly chart. click to enlarge.

The news that SAAG of RM406m power plant job awarded to SAAG should provide the break after a long downtrend. For this reason alone, there should be a short term play this week (07 dec).

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